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Post by stumpy on Jan 22, 2024 13:57:35 GMT
Not the gap between us and the bottom 4 - the prediction for that hasn't changed much and will probably improve over the next half dozen games (maybe not - see edit below); four more wins from our 18 remaining games would give us a minimum 39 points and that is usually enough to stay up. (Current prediction is for us to get 43 points, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that go up over the next half dozen games.)
The interesting changes (interesting for geeks like me anyway) are at the top end. When I started doing this, Hornchurch had won 10 games on the trot and looked like running away with the league. But since then their form has taken a nose-dive (only 2 wins in their last 8 games) and the gap between them and the chasers is narrowing all the time. Latest prediction has it too close to call between them and Billericay, with Billericay slight favourites if anything.
Still predict Chatham and Wingate to make the play-offs with something to spare, but the last play-off spot is getting very tight, with Enfield and Bognor predicted to finish with the same number of points, and Lewes only one point behind them.
All twaddle of course, and will probably change within the next fortnight.
(Finbarr, FWP still have Hornchurch winning the league by a mile, because they reckon that they are going to win 15 of their remaining 18 games and draw the other 3, and that in these 18 games, they are only going to concede 3 goals - I suppose it's possible...)
Edit: I've just had a look at our next 6 fixtures - pretty tough!
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Post by folkestoneclaret on Jan 22, 2024 16:32:29 GMT
Looking on the bright side and assuming we can stay clear of the relegation zone it looks very likely that next season's Isthmian Prem list will be Kent dominated viz
Invicta
Ramsgate
Dover
Cray Wdrs
Welling all pretty much assured
Margate if they can arrest their slide
Any of Cray PM, Sittingbourne, Herne Bay, Sheppey if one of them make it through the play offs
Chatham and Hastings if neither goes up (yes Hastings not Kent I know but still local for us at least)
So 9 "local" sides and plenty of local derbies.
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Post by stumpy on Jan 22, 2024 19:43:08 GMT
Yes, that will be good - good for gates too.
I don't see Margate staying up; Chatham might go up via the play-off, who knows, but I don't think Hastings will make them, so they should still be around. As for the teams coming up, it's hard to see beyond Ramsgate and Cray Valley PM, but one of them is going to have to do it via the play-offs, and they are always a lottery.
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Post by finbarr_in_z on Jan 27, 2024 21:14:39 GMT
Form table now has us mid table. Was that on the prediction cards?
BTW FWP has us avoiding the drop by one place.
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Post by stumpy on Jan 27, 2024 21:30:01 GMT
Good job these form predictions are iffy: after our midweek defeat and today's draw we are back in 19th and relegated. That's because Cray and Cheshunt won today and Concord's form over the last 10 games is better than ours (13 points to our 9) and they have a few more games to play than us.
Fact is that, rather than iffy, form based predictions are volatile and one win for a team near the bottom or one defeat for a team near the top can make a difference of 3 or even 4 places in the predicted final table. Some teams predicted points totals are very close, too close to call really.
What the predictions currently suggest that probably isn't going to be far out is:
Champions - Hornchurch
Play offs - Chatham, Billericay, plus two out of the following (in order of most likely to least likely): Lewes, Bognor, Wingate & Finchley, Hastings, Enfield, Carshalton
Relegated - Kingstonian, Margate, Haringey, plus one of the following: Invicta, Cheshunt, Whitehawk, Concord, Cray.
Probably change again after next Saturday - will change on Tuesday if we beat Hornchurch!
(Finbarr - these are still quite close to the FWP predicted table that is based on predicted results: same top 8 and the same bottom 7, but not quite in the same order. The significant differences are (1) they have Enfield in the play-offs and I no longer do - I have Lewes instead and (2) they have Concord being relegated, not us (they have us finishing 18th) - on this basis, I like their predictions better than mine.)
It's still the case that four wins from our remaining 16 games should be enough to keep us up; five wins would almost certainly be enough, based on past seasons.
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Post by stumpy on Jan 27, 2024 21:47:00 GMT
Form table now has us mid table. Was that on the prediction cards? BTW FWP has us avoiding the drop by one place. It depends on how many games back you go: if you use the last 6, yes we finish mid-table. I use the last ten, and unfortunately that starts with four defeats before things start to pick up with our win against Margate and the mostly good results since. Even one draw in our next four games will improve our 10 game form, although wouldn't make a significant difference to our predicted finishing spot - one win would though, and two wins would really make a positive difference. Of course, what really matters is what we do between now and the end of the season - four more wins will probably see us OK. |
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Post by stumpy on Jan 27, 2024 22:05:10 GMT
Looking at the fixtures, I think our fate will be decided by our results in February and early March.
Our next two games are very tough - Hornchurch at home then Billericay away - and we might well lose both of them.
But after that, we have the following run of games, all winnable in theory and almost all against our nearest relegation rivals
Cray (H), Potters Bar (H), Whitehawk (A), Concord (H), Cheshunt (A), Kingstonian (H), Canvey (H), Cray (A)
I reckon we'll have a fair idea of how we're going to finish after that lot, and hopefully we'll win most of them, because after that our last six games are tough, all against teams currently in the top half of the table, four of them against play off contenders.
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Post by finbarr_in_z on Feb 3, 2024 18:48:50 GMT
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Post by stumpy on Feb 3, 2024 19:57:48 GMT
Actually, because I use form over the last 10 games, it hasn't made a vast difference to the predictions, not for Billericay anyway: they are now predicted to finish 3rd, with Chatham in 2nd; it's very close though. I had them the other way round a week ago.
It makes more of a difference to the prediction for us, a positive one. Now predicting us to finish 16th on 48 points. If we beat Cray on Tuesday, that predicted points total will go up and so will our predicted final position. And it will keep going up if we keep on winning.
Current predictions (quite a bit of change over last time at the top end, not so much at the bottom):
Champions - Hornchurch (10+ points clear)
Play-offs - Chatham, Billericay, Bognor, + either Wingate & Finchley or Hastings; outsiders - Carshalton, Dulwich, Horsham, Enfield, Lewes
Relegated - Kingstonian, Margate, Haringey, Cheshunt; outsiders - Concord, then (rank outsider really) Whitehawk.
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Post by finbarr_in_z on Feb 19, 2024 23:03:41 GMT
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Post by stumpy on Feb 19, 2024 23:24:24 GMT
At the moment, my "form" predictions have us finishing where we are now, 17th, but that will improve in the short term if we can win 3 or so of our next six games. The defeat against Whitehawk hasn't changed anything.
I still have us quite a few points ahead of the relegation candidates, who are the current bottom 5, Kingstonian, Haringey, Concord, Cheshunt and Margate.
As for the top end, Hornchurch are stronger favourites even than before, and Chatham are looking a good bet for the playoffs. After them, it's all got a bit closer: Billericay have had some bad results of late and Horsham, who had lots of games in hand a while back, have been getting good results and are very much in the frame. I now reckon that the play-off teams will be Chatham, plus three from Horsham, Wingate & Finchley, Billericay and Bognor. The other team currently on a good run of form is Dulwich, but they have a bit of a gap to make up, probably too big.
This is all bound to change again....
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Post by bollockchops on Feb 20, 2024 12:00:01 GMT
At the moment, my "form" predictions have us finishing where we are now, 17th, but that will improve in the short term if we can win 3 or so of our next six games. The defeat against Whitehawk hasn't changed anything. I still have us quite a few points ahead of the relegation candidates, who are the current bottom 5, Kingstonian, Haringey, Concord, Cheshunt and Margate. As for the top end, Hornchurch are stronger favourites even than before, and Chatham are looking a good bet for the playoffs. After them, it's all got a bit closer: Billericay have had some bad results of late and Horsham, who had lots of games in hand a while back, have been getting good results and are very much in the frame. I now reckon that the play-off teams will be Chatham, plus two from Horsham, Wingate & Finchley, Billericay and Bognor. The other team currently on a good run of form is Dulwich, but they have a bit of a gap to make up, probably too big. This is all bound to change again.... Most of the teams below us atm have games in hand with Concord having 6, but that doesn't guarantee a full number of points as there are few teams quite a few points adrift. Points in bank is always better than games in hand I think? What do others say? |
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Post by stumpy on Feb 20, 2024 12:20:13 GMT
Points in bank is always better than games in hand I think? What do others say? Definitely. Concord probably won't win many of those games in hand - let's hope they don't win the one on Saturday - and although, at the moment, they just survive in my predictions, that will change if they lose their next couple of games. The thing about form predictions is that they change just about weekly with results and are bound to be wrong in detail until very near the end of the season. They are just a way of passing the time, which I have far too much of these days. |
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Post by finbarr_in_z on Feb 20, 2024 15:44:39 GMT
Points may be one of the few things we have in the bank these days  |
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paulh
New Member
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Post by paulh on Feb 20, 2024 15:49:22 GMT
A win Saturday against Concord should be enough to finish any chance of them catching up.
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Post by folkestoneclaret on Feb 20, 2024 21:50:03 GMT
Concord beat Billericay 2-1 and now 8 points behind us but still 4 games in hand. Cray Valley PM now lead Ramsgate by 1pt in SE Division with both played 26. Cray remain unbeaten. Dover lost.
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Post by bollockchops on Feb 20, 2024 21:56:26 GMT
Concord beat Billericay 2-1 and now 8 points behind us but still 4 games in hand. Cray Valley PM now lead Ramsgate by 1pt in SE Division with both played 26. Cray remain unbeaten. Dover lost. Concord have 5 games in hand on FIFC, so Saturday even more important but with them having another 17 games to play in less than 2.5 months will be an issue as it will for other teams who have not played 30 games or so |
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Post by stumpy on Feb 20, 2024 23:00:12 GMT
Concord's win doesn't change the prediction for the bottom four, which was already Kingstonian, Haringey, Cheshunt and Margate, but it does suggest a more comfortable cushion for Concord over those four.
Where it makes more difference is at the top. Billericay are on a bad run, four defeats in their last six games, and tonight's defeat sees them drop out of the predicted play-off teams, who are currently Chatham, Horsham, Wingate and Bognor.
There's no personal opinion involved in these predictions, I'm a slave to method. I don't take into account who teams are playing in their remaining fixtures and, as Bollockchops says, some teams have a very crowded schedule to get all their games played by the date on which the season must end, and that could throw a spanner in their works.
As I've said before, form-based predictions are volatile and one result can see a team's predicted finishing spot go up or down four or five places. At some point I have to put up or shut up. That will be when the majority of teams have six games left to play.
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Post by finbarr_in_z on Mar 26, 2024 22:19:22 GMT
Below us Margate beat Cheshunt tonight. A faint glimmer of hope for the 'Gate.
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Post by bollockchops on Mar 26, 2024 23:26:41 GMT
Below us Margate beat Cheshunt tonight. A faint glimmer of hope for the 'Gate. So for all u stattos at FIFC here are the max scores on the doors assuming all the teams win all remaining games but have not looked at who plays who
With 42 games for the season the max points these teams can get fro0m remaining fixtures is as follows
Concord 48 Kingstonian 42 Haringay 45 Margit 47 Cheshunt 54 Canvey 62 FIFC 63
So reckon the top four here are for the bin.
Over to El StattoStumpo for any proper input. Happy easter to all
Keith
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Post by stumpy on Mar 27, 2024 13:44:32 GMT
Agreed, the current bottom four (your "top four") have had it.
Clearly, Hornchurch are going to win the league. Chatham look safe for the play-offs and Horsham look a good bet, but after that it's tight. The team that is really on a really good run is Dulwich and they are up to 6th now, 2 points behind 5th, but they've played one or two games more than the teams they are trying to overhaul (Wingate & Finchley, Horsham and Enfield). There are a few others with an outside chance of the play-offs, but it's looking more and more like the teams I have mentioned. But who knows; if it was truly predictable, we'd put the bookies out of business.
As for us, I think we'll probably finish where we are now, 16th, but we might overtake Cray; our run in is quite tough on paper.
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Post by finbarr_in_z on Mar 27, 2024 14:24:51 GMT
We could have a Potters Bar Town sweepstake to keep it interesting. They are storming up the league at the moment. Too late for the playoffs though.
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Post by stumpy on Mar 27, 2024 19:57:59 GMT
Potters Bar are the "jewel in my crown" because I predicted a top half finish for them while they were still in the bottom four - which was all down to a terrible first quarter of the season. I wonder what odds I would have got on that... but you're right, it doesn't look like they will make the play offs now. The other predictions that I'm pleased with are that Billericay would blow it while they were still in the top three and that Horsham would make the play-offs when they were around 10th, but with a lot of games in hand. I won't mention all the ones I got wrong - like Carshalton to be relegated  |
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