|
|
Post by stumpy on Dec 4, 2023 16:59:00 GMT
I know that this is of no interest to some, but it's harmless fun (my idea of fun anyway) and it gives me something to do. The good news is that, following this weekend's results, our predicted final position based on form over the last ten games has improved from 18th to 17th. Of course, in reality things are very tight towards the bottom of the table and any team that strings a couple of wins together suddenly leaps up the predicted table, but what the form predictions suggest is: 1. Haringey and Kingstonian will finish bottom and next to bottom. 2. Potters Bar will finish comfortably in mid table with about 60 points. 3. Lewes and Cheshunt and Cray will finish well clear of the bottom four. 4. The remaining two relegation spots are likely to be filled by two out of the following: Carshalton, us, Margate, and Concord, with Carshalton and Margate the two most likely to go down. Interestingly(?), one of the things that comes out of the predictions is that the number of points needed to stay up is 39. That is exactly what it was last season and the season before - the team that finished 18th had 39 points. With glass half-full; we have 19 points already; we have 25 games left and 20 points from those games will probably keep us up. If our current form is repeated until the end of the season, then that is how many points we will get. If we can improve even a little we should be safe. If we can take 55 points from those 25 games games then we will be in with a shout of the play-offs  |
|
fang
Junior Member
Posts: 211 
|
Post by fang on Dec 4, 2023 17:02:51 GMT
The team have won or played well against the top teams in the division (maybe not Chatham) but haven't performed well/lost/drawn against bottom teams ie Kingstonian, Haringey Borough.
|
|
|
|
Post by stumpy on Dec 4, 2023 20:26:00 GMT
The worry is that our better performances came earlier in the season and our results over the last 10 games, regardless of how we have played, have been pretty poor. I know, not that I was there, that we played well at Hornchurch, but we still lost 4-2; and, of course, we beat Billericay, which I enjoyed as much as anyone, but we were very lucky that they missed a hatful of chances and Joe played a blinder.
Fact is, our results don't have to improve a lot to keep us up, but the rest of the season is going to be very nervy if they don't improve. And we definitely can't afford for them to get any worse at all or relegation becomes a probability rather than a possibility.
If we can string two wins together soon the picture becomes much rosier, as long as we don't then go on another losing run.
|
|
|
|
Post by bollockchops on Dec 4, 2023 20:36:20 GMT
The worry is that our better performances came earlier in the season and our results over the last 10 games, regardless of how we have played, have been pretty poor. I know, not that I was there, that we played well at Hornchurch, but we still lost 4-2; and, of course, we beat Billericay, which I enjoyed as much as anyone, but we were very lucky that they missed a hatful of chances and Joe played a blinder. Fact is, our results don't have to improve a lot to keep us up, but the rest of the season is going to be very nervy if they don't improve. And we definitely can't afford for them to get any worse at all or relegation becomes a probability rather than a possibility. If we can string two wins together soon the picture becomes much rosier, as long as we don't then go on another losing run. So is the forthcoming Velocity Cup going to be a help or a hindrance? I think the club should take it seriously so as to get confidence going, but a game against the Norman Conquest mob wont be easy |
|
|
|
Post by stumpy on Dec 4, 2023 21:46:05 GMT
So is the forthcoming Velocity Cup going to be a help or a hindrance? I think the club should take it seriously so as to get confidence going, but a game against the Norman Conquest mob wont be easy I was going to say an irrelevance, but it is our last shot at silverware this season.... Flippancy aside, we do have new players to bed in, so it's probably a useful game to be playing. Also, if you look in one place, it's called the Velocity Cup, if you look in another place then it's called the Alan Turvey Trophy. Presumably they are the same thing. Confusing or what? |
|
fang
Junior Member
Posts: 211
|
Post by fang on Dec 5, 2023 4:52:37 GMT
The worry is that our better performances came earlier in the season and our results over the last 10 games, regardless of how we have played, have been pretty poor. I know, not that I was there, that we played well at Hornchurch, but we still lost 4-2; and, of course, we beat Billericay, which I enjoyed as much as anyone, but we were very lucky that they missed a hatful of chances and Joe played a blinder. Fact is, our results don't have to improve a lot to keep us up, but the rest of the season is going to be very nervy if they don't improve. And we definitely can't afford for them to get any worse at all or relegation becomes a probability rather than a possibility. If we can string two wins together soon the picture becomes much rosier, as long as we don't then go on another losing run. So what changed between the good start to the season and Mev and Edgy being sacked? Players going out on loan? |
|
|
|
Post by stumpy on Dec 5, 2023 10:45:21 GMT
So what changed between the good start to the season and Mev and Edgy being sacked? Players going out on loan? I wish I knew, but I don't think it was either of those things - we had already lost our mojo before Mev and Edgy were sacked. |
|
|
|
Post by finbarr_in_z on Dec 16, 2023 19:14:30 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by stumpy on Dec 16, 2023 21:04:42 GMT
After today's games The "stats", which are based on form over the last 10 games, number of games left and points to date, have taken a slight turn for the worse from our point of view - 19th with 36 points and so relegated.
But that can change very quickly - one win can make a difference: two wins in succession and you shoot up in the predicted table.
For what it's worth, which is not a lot, current "prediction" is:
Champions - Hornchurch (that one might just be right)
Play-offs - Enfield, Horsham, Chatham, Wingate & Finchley
Relegated - Kingstonian, Haringey, Margate, Invicta
But we all know form can change. Let's hope ours does very soon.
I've tried to fathom how that predicted table you use works out its expected results and thus league positions. We have 13 home games left and it reckons we are going to win 9 of them; I suppose that's possible, but given that we've only won 3 all season, it's not very likely.
It also reckons that Potters Bar are going to get only 15 points from their remaining 24 games and will finish 19th and relegated. They have taken 17 points from their last 10 games and won 4-1 at Canvey today. They are not going to be relegated. In my predictions they will finish in the top half of the table - most likely 9th
|
|
|
|
Post by finbarr_in_z on Jan 13, 2024 19:16:50 GMT
Has our recent form matched the predictions? Are we going up via the playoffs?
|
|
|
|
Post by stumpy on Jan 13, 2024 20:35:15 GMT
Has our recent form matched the predictions? Are we going up via the playoffs? We have to keep it going for a lot more games for it to do that  - but it does make a difference to the last time I looked at this stuff. The current prediction (which is based on everyone's last 10 results rather than last three) is that we will finish 15th or 16th, with a comfortable cushion over the bottom four. Realistically, to make the playoffs, we would probably need to average about 2.8 points a game for the rest of the season, which is a very tall order indeed. Our average points per game over the last ten is 1.1; win more than 1 of our next half dozen games and that will definitely improve. For what it's worth (not a lot), current predictions are: Champions - Hornchurch (but their form has fallen away a bit since I started doing this and the gap to the chasers is narrowing) Playoffs - Wingate & Finchley, Chatham, Billericay and Enfield - outsiders Lewes, Bognor and Hastings Relegated - Kingstonian, Margate, Haringey, Concord - Cheshunt might easily drop into it though and Cray are not out of the woods. Give it a couple of weeks and some of this will probably have changed again - but it does inevitably get more accurate the more games have been played. |
|
|
|
Post by stumpy on Jan 14, 2024 13:32:13 GMT
Incidentally, Dunc, the form based predictions that I'm doing and the FWP ones based on predicting the results of all remaining games are closer together right now than they have been before. We have the same bottom 7, with the same four teams going down, and the same top 8. The only significant difference is that FWP have Hastings making the playoffs and Wingate and Finchley missing out; for some reason their algorithm doesn't fancy W & F, although they are starting to move up (from predicted 11th a week ago to predicted 7th); my prediction is that they will finish top three, with Hastings finishing 8th.
Probably both wrong.
|
|
- but it does make a difference to the last time I looked at this stuff. The current prediction (which is based on everyone's last 10 results rather than last three) is that we will finish 15th or 16th, with a comfortable cushion over the bottom four.