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Post by stumpy on Nov 26, 2023 17:59:21 GMT
If you take a quick glance at the league table, it looks like we've still got a bit of a cushion from the bottom four, but if you look at current form then things start to get a bit scary.
We may have 19 points, but we got 11 of those from the first 7 games and have only picked up 8 points from the 10 games since.
Geek that I am I've looked at every team's form over their last 10 games and worked out the final league table if all teams maintain that form until the end of the season. We finish 19th with 39 points and relegated along with Kingstonian(29), Concord(27) and Haringey(25); Margate(41), Cray(53), Cheshunt(47) and Potters Bar(52) all climb above us.
If you use form over just the last 6 games, then we come out even worse (20th with 36 points) and that's despite the hard fought but rather fortuitous victory over Billericay.
Of course, these kind of predictions change a bit week on week, but it does show that we need to improve sooner rather later or bums are going to start squeaking; mine already is, although that may be the curry and lager.
As for the play-offs - the prediction says forget it!
The same predictions have Hornchurch winning the league (by a mile), with Chatham, Billericay, Canvey and Enfield in the play-offs, with 73 points getting you to the play-offs. For us to get 73 points, we would have to average 2.16 points per game for the rest of the season, which no team in the league has managed over the last 10 games except Hornchurch, who have won all 10.
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rdg
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Post by rdg on Nov 26, 2023 23:53:27 GMT
Still, big TVs in Stripes, who cares about the football
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Post by Ads on Nov 27, 2023 5:30:59 GMT
Popped down to watch the U18s Sunday morning, heard some really positive things , I reckon we will be alright you know
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Post by kentjambo on Nov 27, 2023 8:26:49 GMT
As Tottenham have lost their last 3 games and using your form guide they too will be relegated....not all bad news then๐
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Post by reginalda48 on Nov 27, 2023 9:22:56 GMT
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gripp
New Member
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Post by gripp on Nov 27, 2023 12:07:22 GMT
Form hasn't been good (dreadful) but changes have been promised by the new gaffer and he's going to bring in a few bods. I'm sure he is looking for a bit of quality to fill his boots so he can manage the team properly from the touchline. He's had his fingers burnt and hopefully learnt a bit in his previous jobs and this could be the right time for him. The training ground move opens up a our options massively and cant be underestimated. Shoot me down if you like but I'm optimistic. 25 games left to play.
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Post by bollockchops on Nov 27, 2023 12:09:36 GMT
The table is utter drivel as It predicts Hornchurch will only concede 3 more goals and win all remaining games bar one draw for rest of season!! So how in hell can u go by that when that appears?
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Post by bollockchops on Nov 27, 2023 12:23:51 GMT
17 games for 19 points is 1.1176pts per game. If we do that for the remaining 25 games then will end up with 46.94 points (47)
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 12:24:30 GMT
The table is utter drivel as It predicts Hornchurch will only concede 3 more goals and win all remaining games bar one draw for rest of season!! So how in hell can u go by that when that appears? It also has us winning just about all of our remaining home games - it is utter bollocks and always has been.
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 12:26:17 GMT
As Tottenham have lost their last 3 games and using your form guide they too will be relegated....not all bad news then๐ No they wouldn't, because I'm using form over the last 10 games, not 3. But, yep, we (Spurs) are on the slide at the moment, more down to injuries than anything else.
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 12:30:06 GMT
Popped down to watch the U18s Sunday morning, heard some really positive things , I reckon we will be alright you know Great, but when it's always "jam tomorrow" you stay hungry I'm hoping to see us turn it round, just like everybody else, but we need to see something actually happen; after all, less than a week ago we were going to sign an experienced manager who has been there and done it.....
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 12:34:54 GMT
17 games for 19 points is 1.1176pts per game. If we do that for the remaining 25 games then will end up with 46.94 points (47) I know, but we had a different squad earlier in the season and I'm looking at form over the last ten games, not the season as a whole - easy to predict final outcome based on the total points since the start of the season - the predicted table is identical to the current one with minor adjustments where teams haven't played the same number of games But you know that anyway.... Of course, our form may improve - let's hope so, or we're f*cked.
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 12:38:28 GMT
Form hasn't been good (dreadful) but changes have been promised by the new gaffer and he's going to bring in a few bods. I'm sure he is looking for a bit of quality to fill his boots so he can manage the team properly from the touchline. He's had his fingers burnt and hopefully learnt a bit in his previous jobs and this could be the right time for him. The training ground move opens up a our options massively and cant be underestimated. Shoot me down if you like but I'm optimistic. 25 games left to play. I don't share your optimism; need to see things happening on the pitch first. But, yes, the regular training can only be a positive thing and is years late.
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 12:43:08 GMT
By the way, predictions based on form are always volatile - win our next game and, hey presto, mid-table respectability. That's why I've gone back 10 games rather than 6 (or 3, Jambo )
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 12:48:15 GMT
The table is utter drivel as It predicts Hornchurch will only concede 3 more goals and win all remaining games bar one draw for rest of season!! So how in hell can u go by that when that appears? My prediction table actually has Hornchurch winning ALL their remaining games, not drawing even one; that's because they've won their last 10 on the trot. This kind of prediction is never going to be completely accurate, but it's as good as any and won't be far out.
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Post by thelawman on Nov 27, 2023 13:06:35 GMT
John when is your prediction that your going to bloody well CHEAR UP..๐
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Post by bollockchops on Nov 27, 2023 14:54:50 GMT
The table is utter drivel as It predicts Hornchurch will only concede 3 more goals and win all remaining games bar one draw for rest of season!! So how in hell can u go by that when that appears? My prediction table actually has Hornchurch winning ALL their remaining games, not drawing even one; that's because they've won their last 10 on the trot. This kind of prediction is never going to be completely accurate, but it's as good as any and won't be far out. "Lies, Lies and damn statistics" quote seems very pertinent here.
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Post by reginalda48 on Nov 27, 2023 14:55:04 GMT
Stumpy I don't know why you still support Invicta. If your not happy go and watch Sittingbourne. Or get some happy pills.
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Post by bollockchops on Nov 27, 2023 14:59:42 GMT
Stumpy I don't know why you still support Invicta. If your not happy go and watch Sittingbourne. Or get some happy pills. That would cheer him up as they are 3rd in SE and only lost one game so far
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Post by stumpy on Nov 27, 2023 15:24:55 GMT
Stumpy I don't know why you still support Invicta. If your not happy go and watch Sittingbourne. Or get some happy pills. Got a season ticket or it would be tempting. I'm happy most of the time, it's just those couple of hours every other Saturday afternoon that are a problem at the moment. It gets me out of the house and I spend the time with good people, but right now there's nothing to be happy about as far as the actual football goes, nothing at all. Still, I'm off to Woodstock tomorrow evening, so I should cheer up a bit.
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Post by invictasaint on Nov 27, 2023 16:32:26 GMT
โ Still, I'm off to Woodstock tomorrow evening, so I should cheer up a bit.โ
By the time you get there they'll be half a million strong , much fitter, more organised and shooting up the table!
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Post by finbarr_in_z on Nov 28, 2023 13:02:44 GMT
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fang
Junior Member
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Post by fang on Nov 28, 2023 23:04:44 GMT
Stumpy I don't know why you still support Invicta. If your not happy go and watch Sittingbourne. Or get some happy pills. Got a season ticket or it would be tempting. I'm happy most of the time, it's just those couple of hours every other Saturday afternoon that are a problem at the moment. It gets me out of the house and I spend the time with good people, but right now there's nothing to be happy about as far as the actual football goes, nothing at all. Still, I'm off to Woodstock tomorrow evening, so I should cheer up a bit. Unfortunately, Sittingbourne lost 0 - 1 to Hythe in 92nd minute.
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Post by stumpy on Nov 28, 2023 23:08:23 GMT
Unfortunately, Sittingbourne lost 0 - 1 to Hythe in 92nd minute. Indeed they did, bloody cold as well. Only their second league defeat of the season, and we were there for both of them. So, I'm a jinx on Sittingbourne as well as Invicta.
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Post by stumpy on Nov 29, 2023 12:38:26 GMT
Panic over. Last night's 2-0 defeat for Carshalton at Billericay means that final positions prediction based on last 10 games form now has them at 19th (35 pts) and us at 18th (39 pts). They have had a tough run with most of their last ten games against teams in the top half of the table, but they have lost 7, drawn 2 and won only 1; guess who they beat Predictions based on form always change a bit from result to result: beat Cray on Saturday and our predicted points total goes up to 46, which would have us finishing where we are now, 15th; lose and it goes down to 36; draw and it's still 39. The only certainty about these predictions is that they won't all be correct, but they get more accurate as the season goes on
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fang
Junior Member
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Post by fang on Nov 29, 2023 14:50:49 GMT
Panic over. Last night's 2-0 defeat for Carshalton at Billericay means that final positions prediction based on last 10 games form now has them at 19th (35 pts) and us at 18th (39 pts). They have had a tough run with most of their last ten games against teams in the top half of the table, but they have lost 7, drawn 2 and won only 1; guess who they beat Predictions based on form always change a bit from result to result: beat Cray on Saturday and our predicted points total goes up to 46, which would have us finishing where we are now, 15th; lose and it goes down to 36; draw and it's still 39. The only certainty about these predictions is that they won't all be correct, but they get more accurate as the season goes on Just got the Kentonline article to worry about now.
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Post by kentjambo on Nov 29, 2023 16:36:00 GMT
John when is your prediction that your going to bloody well CHEAR UP..๐ It's very difficult for him John, the guy that stole his lunch money at school is still involved with the club, he is an avid Sittingbourne fan (even has a scarf) and to make matters worse he supports Spurs.. be gentle with him when you see him out riding his horse๐คฃ
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tigger
Junior Member
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Post by tigger on Nov 29, 2023 17:16:55 GMT
John when is your prediction that your going to bloody well CHEAR UP..๐ It's very difficult for him John, the guy that stole his lunch money at school is still involved with the club, he is an avid Sittingbourne fan (even has a scarf) and to make matters worse he supports Spurs.. be gentle with him when you see him out riding his horse๐คฃ I know who stole his lunch money because I was in the same class ๐
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Post by stumpy on Nov 30, 2023 0:08:13 GMT
I know who stole his lunch money because I was in the same class ๐ I wondered - because I moderate this forum I get to see the email addresses of members, and when I saw yours it did cross my mind that maybe you were you, if you see what I mean. You'll have to say hello next time we're both at a game. Will we recognise each other? Well, I've still got a big nose. And nobody stole my lunch money because I was on free dinners; we were poor.
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tigger
Junior Member
Posts: 154
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Post by tigger on Nov 30, 2023 8:38:30 GMT
I know who stole his lunch money because I was in the same class ๐ I wondered - because I moderate this forum I get to see the email addresses of members, and when I saw yours it did cross my mind that maybe you were you, if you see what I mean. You'll have to say hello next time we're both at a game. Will we recognise each other? Well, I've still got a big nose. And nobody stole my lunch money because I was on free dinners; we were poor. If there was a big clock at the ground I could meet you under it and I would wear a red rose in my lapel but sadly no clock but Iโll say hello when I see you on Saturday
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